Maximising Return Minimising Risk Maintaining Resilience
rainforest investment portfolio
Portfolio Attributes
Resilient portfolio shown to be capable of withstanding financial crises and economic slowdown.
Absolute positive returns.
Significant outperformance over the Index.
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Rainforest Notes - march 2026
Our Investment Manager's Commentary for the Month
For March 2026, markets fell due to the war by USA-Israel against Iran on 28 Feb, which has not gone according to plan. Instead of a quick decisive victory over days, the war has continued for more than a month, so that:
· About 20% of energy production infrastructure in the Persian Gulf has been damaged. Oil & gas production will not revert to pre-28 Feb levels for some time.
· Concerns for supply shortages (petrol, diesel, plastic, jet fuel, bunker, fertilizers) are emerging. Many countries have begun to release strategic reserves to plug the shortfall. However, such stop gap measures are short-term ‘band-aids’. Ending this war is of paramount urgency.
· Energy export countries such as USA and Russia have benefited.
We expect Brent crude to continue to trade at elevated levels going forward. The sudden nature of this war has additionally caused supply chain disruption to move beyond the point where it can be remedied by price correction. Availability is threatened - regardless of price – for some key resources. All this means inflation is a certainty.
Having moved swiftly to review Rainforest’s investments in the context of the war once it sprang up on 28 Feb, we make the following points:
(a) Energy and related companies are beneficiaries of the current crisis. Our holdings in such companies have gained in price during March.
(b) Companies whose businesses are particularly dependent on fuel usage will suffer more e.g. transportation. Hence, we sold such companies at a profit in March.
(c) Financially stronger companies will be more able to purchase the higher-priced fuel to sustain operations. The cost of end products will increase, and this will be passed on to the end consumer in the form of higher prices. Such companies typically emerge as net beneficiaries in an inflationary environment. Our portfolio review shows that apart from categories (a) & (b), our holdings generally fall in this category.
(d) We continue to actively scour for quality investments at reduced prices, as we have always done during previous global crises and market volatility.
(e) Finally, to those who topped up investment last month, averaging down their Rainforest price, we thank you for your trust.
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NEWS
Interview of Richard Choong in The Edge
Investing Wisdom
Value and Quality
“...findings of a review of the 1000 largest US equities (by market cap) over 1975-2013. Value was a higher driver of performance than quality, but companies that were both high quality and inexpensively valued with respect to fundamentals delivered the most consistent outperformance....”
Market Ups and Downs
“It’s in the nature of stock markets to go way down from time to time. There’s no system to avoid bad markets. You can’t do it unless you try to time the market, which is a seriously dumb thing to do. Conservative investing with steady savings without expecting miracles is the way to go. ”
Why Invest in Equities
“Investment possibilities are both many and varied. There are three major categories, however, and it’s important to understand the characteristics of each. So let’s survey the field.
Investments that are denominated in a given currency include money-market funds, bonds, mortgages, bank deposits, and other instruments. Most of these currency-based investments are thought of as “safe.” In truth they are among the most dangerous of assets. Their beta may be zero, but their risk is huge. …
The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything,… forever unproductive… The major asset in this category is gold. …
My own preference - and you knew this was coming – is our third category: investment in productive assets, whether businesses, farms, or real estate. …
Berkshire’s goal will be to increase its ownership of first-class businesses. Our first choice will be to own them in their entirety – but we will also be owners by way of holding sizable amounts of Marketable Stocks. I believe that over any extended period of time this category of investing will prove to be the runaway winner among the three we’ve examined. More important, it will be BY FAR the safest.”
A Good Investment Manager
“Did we ever mention that investing is hard work — painstaking, relentless, and at times confounding? Separating relevant signal from noise can be especially difficult. Endless patience, great discipline, and steely resolve are required. Nothing you do will guarantee success, though you can tilt the odds significantly in your favor by having the right philosophy, mindset, process, team, clients, and culture. Getting those six things right is just about everything.
Complicating matters further, a successful investor must possess a number of seemingly contradictory qualities. These include the arrogance to act, and act decisively, and the humility to know that you could be wrong. The acuity, flexibility, and willingness to change your mind when you realize you are wrong, and the stubbornness to refuse to do so when you remain justifiably confident in your thesis. The conviction to concentrate your portfolio in your very best ideas, and the common sense to nevertheless diversify your holdings. A healthy skepticism, but not blind contrarianism. A deep respect for the lessons of history balanced by the knowledge that things regularly happen that have never before occurred. And, finally, the integrity to admit mistakes, the fortitude to risk making more of them, and the intellectual honesty not to confuse luck with skill.”